Breeders' Cup Saturday

Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday  October 30, 2015
Keeneland Race Course - Lexington, Kentucky

After the big day on Friday and with four "prime time plays" today I had high hopes for Championship Saturday.  Today's card was made up of two listed stakes followed by NINE Grade 1 Breeders' Cup championship races.  For what ever reason I woke up at 3:30 am and could not sleep so I worked on the photos from yesterday's adventure until nearly 5 am.  When I woke up and looked at the clock it was already 8 am and we'd planned to head out to the track by 9:30.  Keith was up and about and went to find reading glasses while I got ready and packed (we were leaving from the track to head back home).  I finished about 8:45 and got a cup of coffee.  When he came back we decided to leave for a Panera Bread which was next to the Cracker Barrel to start our day.  We were there for about a half an hour and then headed out to Keeneland.

Today was predicted to be warmer, but it was overcast when we arrived and there was a definite chill in the air; it felt even colder than yesterday.  Once we settled into our seats with the fantastic view of Keeneland I headed back downstairs for a cup of hot chocolate.  It was delicious and a great way to get me fired up for the big day!  I was on edge for the Classic where I wanted so badly to see American Pharoah top off his championship season with a decisive win today.

The first race was the Perryville Stakes and my pick was Majestic Affair.  He had last run in the Grade 3 Bayshore last spring, but top conditioner Chad Brown scores high percentages with layoff runners, and Javier Castellano was up.  Ironically on my way down to get hot chocolate I passed Chad Brown and wished him well - he thanked me.  From the very start Majestic Affair was wide and had no impact at 7/1, finishing fifth. In the second it was the Juvenile Sprint.  For a couple of years this had been a Breeders' Cup race, but it had been dropped two years ago - still it was on the card as a listed stakes both last year and today.  I went with unbeaten Richie the Bull who was a stalker and looked to get the perfect trip.  He did and was gaining, but was no better than third at 9/2.

The third race on today's card was the first of the Breeders' Cup races, the Grade 1 Juvenile Fillies.  Songbird was my prime-time play and honestly I considered making her a "heavy" investment.  She had been visually impressive in winning her most recent two starts and I thought she looked TONS the best in here.  My concern was that she was facing some really nice fillies, especially the highly regarded and also unbeaten Rachel's Valentina AND Songbird would be shipped out of California for the first time while drawing post ten.  While she'd won on the lead previously I felt the wide draw and short run to the first turn would lead Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to let her sit off the leader to the far turn.  But right out of the gate she exploded easily to the front.  She was travelling so easily that I had little doubt she'd win, it was just by how much.  What I did not figure was how scintillating her performance was.  Through the turn she was handily in front and Smith had not moved.  Jockey John Velazquez was begging Rachel's Valentina to cut into the lead by Songbird extended her lead with ease while Smith never moved.  It was easily one of the three most impressive performances of the weekend.  Provided all goes smoothly this filly will be the short-priced favorite on the first Friday of May in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks!

Two nice things about this win.......Songbird was 1/5 in the early betting and Keith said he'd just watch.  But with three minutes to post time she floated up to 3/5 and he left his seat.  I didn't ask, but I knew.  When she crossed the finish line he looked at me and said, "That's why you put $200 to win on a favorite!"  I was excited for him because he'd gone 0-fer on yesterday's card.  The second thing was that this win and my "prime time play" put me back in the black for the day!  WHOOO HOOO!  In the 4th, the Turf Sprint I liked Lady Shipman.  While I think local So Fla rider Eduardo Nunez is a good jockey, I loved the move to put top NY rider Irad Ortiz up.  I thought he'd get Lady Shipman to relax off the pace.  He did and she was in perfect position to run down the 15/1 leader in the stretch.  She was coming hard as the line came up.....PHOTO FINISH!  Second to that longshot winner.  The winner, Mongolian Saturday had multiple Asian owners and they all paraded to the winner's circle in traditional Mongolian garb to the delight of the crowd!  I the Filly & Mare Sprint I loved the 14 draw for multiple stakes winner Cavorting.  She was unbeaten in ever race around one turn and her off-the-pace style was a perfect fit for the track profile and with all the speed to her inside.  She was in traffic several times down the backside but was rallying.....too late, fourth as the tepid 3/1 favorite while my upset longshot rallied through a clean trip to win at 10/1.  I KNEW I was going to win the next, the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  Legatisimo was a multiple Group 1 winner with only two nose defeats this year.  Her Group 1 scores were much better than anything the domestics had ever seen.  Top jockey Ryan Moore rode her confidently, four wide into the lane to keep her free of trouble.  She wore down the 20/1 leader nearing the 1/8th pole but he - nor the horse - never saw North American heroine Stephanie's Kitten FLYING up the rail to pass her.  By the time they saw Stephanie it was in the shadow of the wire and she was second as one of my added investment selections.  It was very interesting to watch the reaction of the owners and trainer with Moore following the race.  It was very clear that they felt very strongly that he'd let the race get away from him by not riding more aggressively.  This was doubly obvious because Moore had at least one more mount for these same connections later this afternoon.  In the BC Sprint I was unable to watch the race live.  Keith and I went to the "Gourmet Hot Dog" stand and ordered dogs.  Only to be told that they had no dogs!  WHAT???? They would need 20 minutes to cook.  We waited and finally got them at post time.  What was really odd was that the entire time there were at least two dozen dogs on the rolling grill behind the cooks.  I figured those had just been put on there, but when the hot dogs were "ready" no one even looked at or touched those hot dogs.  What's the deal?  My pick Salutos Amigos was a late running 5th at 12/1 odds. 

In the Breeders' Cup Mile I liked the Euro Esoterique who was 4/1 at post time.  Keith was looking to cash his second ticket and contemplated a trifecta.  He asked me who I'd throw out.  "To start with, the 7" I said.  He looked up and she was the third choice.  He said, come on, be serious - who won't hit the board.  I told him I'd seen this filly (who was taking on the boys here) and she's really overrated.  Who else he asked.  I said while it was difficult to say with certainty who would not hit the board I felt pretty confident that 1,4, 8, and 10 would also not hit the board.  My pick, Esoterique was near the back the entire time, 7th.  The #7, Tepin won like a world champion and the top four numbers:  7-4-1-10 ..... go figure!  The best part was Keith said that THIS would be his most vivid memory of the weekend....I said the 7 would not hit the board, nor would the 4-1-10 and those four were 1-2-3-4 with a $1,000 payoff on the trifecta!  In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile I wondered if the unbeaten west coast juvenile, Nyquist, could adjust to the trip like Songbird.  But we went with Unbridled Outlaw who'd had three consecutive troubled trips and got a rider change to Mike Smith.  He pressed the pace to the far turn at 7/1 then stopped to finish 12th while Nyquist drew off impressively at nearly 5/1.  The Breeders' Cup Turf was one of my top plays of the day.  I explained to Keith that five years ago I bought the "Crushing The Cup" book from local handicapper Jim Mazur and had followed his advice in the turf to (a) avoid the Arc winner and bet "the other European."  I was rewarded when Dangerous Midge won and paid $19.  In 2011 I again followed this angle and was rewarded when St. Nicholas Abbey won and paid $15.60.  In 2012 North American Little Mike won at a big price (after I'd bet him in nearly every other start all year and abandoned him in the BC!); and then in 2013 I went with the Euro favorite, only to watch the "other Euro" win at a big price.  Last year I went with a Euro but saw North American unbeaten star Main Sequence win.  So today I really liked Golden Horn because - I reasoned - I was thinking "outside the box."  He had a sensational career record of 8/7-1-0 with earnings of over $6 million.  And while he had won the Arc last time out he was the Euro version of American Pharoah and EVERYONE was certain he'd win here. As I looked over the field before betting there wasn't anyone who looked like a serious threat.  But it kept nagging at me.  I showed Keith the runners and told him about the "other Euro" angle.  And then I pointed out that besides Golden Horn there was only ONE other European in the field.....#9 Found who was 6/1.  He'd been beaten by Golden Horn previously.  But Ryan Moore was riding for the SAME connections as in the F&M Turf on Legatisimo.  I wavered, but then I thought no, Golden Horn wins here.  The front running longshot was at least 15 lengths in front while Golden Horn tracked in third at 4/5.  On the far turn he inhaled that one and was clear into the lane.  In the final 16th there came a blur on the outside with a turquoise saddle cloth and the number 9 on it to nail him in the final fifty yards.....yes, the "other European" Follow, who paid $14.80 and NOW the connections were delighted with Moore's ride!  Finally, it was time for THE RACE - the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.  As Keith and I awaited the start we were both very nervous and shared the opinion that it wasn't about the bet, or the handicapping but more about American Pharoah.  We just WANTED him to be the legend he seems to be and go out as the first Triple Crown winner to capture the Classic.  I really, REALLY thought he was sitting on a HUGE race here but I have been trying all fall to not go over the top with my bets.  But when it came time to bet I made him the "BET of the WEEKEND."  The crowd was as amped up as we were and erupted when he came on the track for the post parade; and again when the announcer said it was post time; and the roar was deafening when they broke out of the gate.  He easily went to the front and I was pretty confident he was a big time winner.  Nearing the far turn first one horse and then another tried to close ground on him but each time he spurted away.  When they turned for home the crowd was going wild as he opened up by five lengths.  Through the stretch jockey Victor Espinoza gave him a vigorous hand ride as this was he final race of his career and as he crossed the finish line he'd set a course record and had stopped the clock with one of the fastest BC Classic times of all time.

My bet, as you can see in the photo, was a $100 win bet.  In spite of the main threat, champion mare Beholder scratching AND being the lone speed of the race, somehow the crowd let him go off at 3/5 odds....amazing.  So my ticket got me a return of $170.  This enabled me to finish the weekend with a profit and a "typical" 30% win percentage.  As Keith and I both said before the race, regardless of anything else, if American Pharoah wins, that will be all we remember - or at least what we remember most about our trip to Keeneland and the Breeders' Cup.  We got out of the parking lot with very little trouble and within a half an hour we were back at the hotel parking lot where Keith got into his car to drive home and I was ready to head back to Columbus.  We've already agreed we'll pass on the BC next year when it is back at Santa Anita, AGAIN (fourth time in five years) but we will be planning on going to the 2017 Breeders' Cup in San Diego at Del Mar.  I thought many times on the drive home how very fortunate I am....not only overall with my retirement and trips.  But how lucky that I'd decided that THIS year I wanted to go to Arkansas for the Apple Blossom and stay for the Arkansas Derby - and American Pharoah shows up there; then I'd decided over a year ago that I wanted to go to the Preakness and I'd go this year....and American Pharoah shows up;  and before we ever knew about either of those races, Keith and I had made a commitment to come to Keeneland for the Breeders' Cup and here he is again.  The first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, the first to EVER win the Triple Crown AND the Breeders' Cup Classic and I get to see him THREE times live.  I must be doing something right!

Breeders' Cup Friday

Breeders' Cup Friday:  October 30, 2015
Keeneland Race Course - Lexington, Kentucky

After flying into Columbus on Wednesday I drove to Lexington (well, actually Georgetown to be accurate) and checked into the Baymont Inn & Suites about 25 minutes from Keenland.  I arrived around 9 pm and Keith drove in from his home in Illinois, arriving a little after 1 am.  After handicapping the weekend of Breeders' Cup races I felt like Friday was a pretty mediocre day with little chance to have a "big day" with my more confident plays being on the Saturday card.  We were at the Cracker Barrel just across the access road by 9 for breakfast then headed out to Keeneland about 10 am.  I had pre-purchased parking at the track and though it looked a good distance from the entrance it was a short walk.  The weather was in the upper 30s at breakfast, but we were in the low 40s by the time we arrived at historic Keeneland race track.  There was definitely an excitement in the air for everyone as we approached the grandstand entrance.

After flying into Columbus on Wednesday I drove to Lexington (well, actually Georgetown to be accurate) and checked into the Baymont Inn & Suites about 25 minutes from Keenland.  I arrived around 9 pm and Keith drove in from his home in Illinois, arriving a little after 1 am.  After handicapping the weekend of Breeders' Cup races I felt like Friday was a pretty mediocre day with little chance to have a "big day" with my more confident plays being on the Saturday card.  We were at the Cracker Barrel just across the access road by 9 for breakfast then headed out to Keeneland about 10 am.  I had pre-purchased parking at the track and though it looked a good distance from the entrance it was a short walk.  The weather was in the upper 30s at breakfast, but we were in the low 40s by the time we arrived at historic Keeneland race track.  There was definitely an excitement in the air for everyone as we approached the grandstand entrance.

The first item on the agenda was to pose by the Breeders' Cup statute and then we checked out the gift shops.  In the end the only thing we purchased was Keith bought a "magic pen" - and it had better have plenty of winners because it was a $10 buy!  Ironically when we found the DRF stand (programs were free!) they were selling pens for ONE dollar.  Figures.  Walking around and checking out the facility was cool, and it was interesting to see all the fans dressed in anything from their race day finest, to jeans and a t-shirt.  One guy - and only one - was even in shorts despite the weather!  You'll note "that guy" was Keith!

One final photo-op and it was time to head up to our seats.  Not like I'd had a choice of where to sit when I was lucky enough to get tickets last winter, but our seats were amazing.  As you can see from the panorama below we were right at the 16th pole, which was the alternate finish line - and the finish line for three of the Breeders' Cup races.  The setting was every bit as picturesque as I'd remembered it.  As you look out across the track all you see are the rolling hills of Kentucky horse farm country.  And this time of year there was still plenty of fall colors.  THIS is what the Breeders' Cup should be like we both agreed - a traditional track with a packed house of race fans in an idyllic setting.

On the Friday card there were only four Breeders' Cup races, but there were two stakes - one graded - prior to the first championship race and three allowance races.  In the opener I liked Helooksthepart in a nw3x sprint.  There were eight horses entered and SEVEN of them were front runners with only my pick as a closer.  As the gates sprung open to kick off the weekend he was quickly in the back.  He made his move on the turn and while he made up ground Helookshepart was never a threat, finishing 5th at 5/1 odds. My second choice - who had shown speed vs. better here at Keeneland in a two-turn event won at better than 3/1.  The second race saw me land on Street Blush who was one of only two in this allowance test that had NOT raced in 2-lifetime company.  She as bet down from 5/1 in the program to 5/2 at post time but she broke in the air and trailed throughout, 7th.  The winner easily went wire to wire at nearly 4/1.  The third was another allowance, this time going seven furlongs.  I liked Pratereo who was 5/1 in the program but was a huge 10/1 at post time. He stalked the lead through the turn and I thought I might have something.....then ran evenly to the wire.  The winner was a big surprise to everyone at 15/1!  The fourth was my first added bet of the weekend as I doubled the bet on Bill Mott's Closing Bell who was the 2/1 post time favorite.  Deservedly so after being entered in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby of his maiden win and following that with a sharp second in the Grade 1 Secretariat.  He closed determinedly after laying fourth into the stretch, but he just couldn't get to the 16/1 winner.  Ironically in analyzing the race I wrote this about my third choice...... .  "How many times this weekend do you think you'll be able to get double-digits on a Chad Brown turf runner, that's owned by leading North American owners/breeders Ken & Sarah Ramsey, with top jockey Javier Castellano up?  Well 4-Tweet Kitten (12/1) gives you that chance here." and how prophetic was that as Tweet Kitten DID win paying over $30!  The fifth race was the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes.  Several in the field were multiple stakes winners and I was certain that Bob Baffert's Hoppertunity - who'd won the Grade 1 Clark last year - and Todd Pletcher's Commissioner, who was also a multiple stakes winner - would draw a lot of attention at the windows.  But the field overall was not full of any "stars."  To me the one that COULD be a star was another from the Pletcher stable, Race Day.  I'd seen him run at Gulfstream where he'd won an allowance with a big figure and then was third in a 3-way photo in a graded stakes.  He'd bounced out of that to take a graded stakes at Oaklawn, and then on Arkansas Derby Day he'd won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in ultra-impressive style as my top choice.  After that he'd run poorly but I thought you could make excuses for those efforts and I expected a big effort today.  He stalked the leaders through the far turn and then was cut loose by John Velazquez.  He burst to the front, lengthened his stride and was daylight clear to the wire, easily holding off the late running Hoppertunity.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

And the best part about my first winner on the day, he had gone off at a generous 4/1 price.  And despite losing my first four picks of the day, I just had a feeling about him, so instead of sticking with my minimum bet I'd doubled the play.  When the tote lit up at $10.60 for a $2 payout I was destined to cash out at better than $50!  And here's the really cool part to the story.  On Wednesday when I'd left for Ohio Kim had flown to Houston to be with Jeff, Antoinette, and Cameron for the birth of our second grandson.  It was expected to be a schedule delivery on Thursday but due to no beds at the hospital it was delayed until today.  About ten minutes before post time I got a text and photo of my new grandson, Anthony Rico, and then I hit Race Day in the Fayette!  What a great story - he's my good luck charm and he's not even an hour old!  Thanks Anthony!  The next race was the first of the Breeders' Cup races, the Grade1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  As I wrote in my analysis I felt like any one of half a dozen - literally nearly half the field - had a legitimate chance to win.  But in spite of drawing post 14 I liked the Euro juvenile, Hit It A Bomb.  He was a perfect 2-for-2 and had lured top Euro rider Ryan Moore.  As the field neared the far turn he was near the back and the entire field was chasing a 45/1 longshot.  At the furlong pole I had my camera on, but I nearly turned off the video because 'Bomb was no where to be found.  But then the long-time leader began to shorten stride.  I thought it would be a thrilling finish, even if I was NOT in it so I let the camera roll and then I caught site of his light blue cap quickly gobbling up ground.  When I tell you he was F-L-Y-I-N-G through the final 100 yards this does not even begin to describe the incredible finish he put on.  You have to watch the video recap or the race replay.  But in spite of being hopelessly out of it at the top of the lane, somehow Hit It A Bomb somehow was first on the wire in a photo finish!  TWO IN A ROW!

In spite of being 9/2 in the program the crowd had let him go off at a huge 7/1 price.  The $16.40 payoff meant I would cash for over $40.  Just like that I'm winning, big for the day! 

The 7th was my BET of the Day.  It was the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.  I'd had Liam's Map when he won his first-level allowance at Belmont last fall and when he'd won his first stakes race at Gulfstream last winter.  I'd most recently had him when he wired the Grade 1 Woodward as a prime-time pick.  After that it was widely expected that he would challenge American Pharoah in the $5 million Classic tomorrow.  But when I did my initial analysis of the 200 pre-entered horses I wrote that I was hoping he'd run in today's $1 million Dirt Mile because I thought he was a standout.  The only problem I saw was that there appeared to be another really fast horse - Appealing Tale, a wire-to-wire winner of a Grade 2 sprint and the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile - to challenge him.  But when that one defected to run in the Sprint on the Saturday card I thought this race was all over but the shouting.  So did the crowd who bet Liam's Map down to 1/2 favoritism.  But as they came out of the gate right in front of us he was squeezed back and was NOT on the lead.  He worked himself up to third mid-way down the backstretch but was checked and dropped back.  As the field turned for home and I was watching through my camera I lost sight of him.  I checked the little chicklets on the tote board and he looked to be dropping back fifth or sixth.  But as they moved into the stretch he swung off the rail and was in the clear with dead aim on the classy Lea who was two in front.  At the furlong pole just inside of our seats he blew by with devastating ease, so much so that both Keith and I looked at each other and said, "WOW!"  It was one of the most impressive Breeders' Cup wins of the weekend everyone agreed afterwards. AND he set a track record - all with being forced to run out of his comfort zone and run down a loose leader.  

That's three in a row for me (since the birth of my grandson!) and I am guaranteed a winning day on a card that I did not think much of.  In the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf I liked Alice Springs, another Euro with Moore on board.  She was 3/1 and split horses to go after the leader.  Only second best behind the 6/1 winner who had been my third choice.  The last championship race was the Grade 1, $2 Million Distaff.  I had liked Untapable, last year's winner who I felt was sitting on a big race.  But on Wednesday she'd spiked a fever and was withdrawn.  I went back and forth between several alternatives and finally settled on the filly I'd written was a dangerous longshot, I'm A Chatterbox.  She was 9/2 at post time and rode the rails while well back into the turn......and then nothing.  A distant sixth.  The winner was Stopchargingmaria at better than 7/1.  I'd considered her, but ..... As we headed for the exits the INQUIRY sign came up and while there was bumping it didn't look significant.  The stewards let the order stand.  For the day I'd won three of nine and cleared over $50 in profit.  An excellent day, even more so because of the kind of day I'd anticipated.