Breeders' Cup Friday

Breeders' Cup Friday:  October 30, 2015
Keeneland Race Course - Lexington, Kentucky

After flying into Columbus on Wednesday I drove to Lexington (well, actually Georgetown to be accurate) and checked into the Baymont Inn & Suites about 25 minutes from Keenland.  I arrived around 9 pm and Keith drove in from his home in Illinois, arriving a little after 1 am.  After handicapping the weekend of Breeders' Cup races I felt like Friday was a pretty mediocre day with little chance to have a "big day" with my more confident plays being on the Saturday card.  We were at the Cracker Barrel just across the access road by 9 for breakfast then headed out to Keeneland about 10 am.  I had pre-purchased parking at the track and though it looked a good distance from the entrance it was a short walk.  The weather was in the upper 30s at breakfast, but we were in the low 40s by the time we arrived at historic Keeneland race track.  There was definitely an excitement in the air for everyone as we approached the grandstand entrance.

After flying into Columbus on Wednesday I drove to Lexington (well, actually Georgetown to be accurate) and checked into the Baymont Inn & Suites about 25 minutes from Keenland.  I arrived around 9 pm and Keith drove in from his home in Illinois, arriving a little after 1 am.  After handicapping the weekend of Breeders' Cup races I felt like Friday was a pretty mediocre day with little chance to have a "big day" with my more confident plays being on the Saturday card.  We were at the Cracker Barrel just across the access road by 9 for breakfast then headed out to Keeneland about 10 am.  I had pre-purchased parking at the track and though it looked a good distance from the entrance it was a short walk.  The weather was in the upper 30s at breakfast, but we were in the low 40s by the time we arrived at historic Keeneland race track.  There was definitely an excitement in the air for everyone as we approached the grandstand entrance.

The first item on the agenda was to pose by the Breeders' Cup statute and then we checked out the gift shops.  In the end the only thing we purchased was Keith bought a "magic pen" - and it had better have plenty of winners because it was a $10 buy!  Ironically when we found the DRF stand (programs were free!) they were selling pens for ONE dollar.  Figures.  Walking around and checking out the facility was cool, and it was interesting to see all the fans dressed in anything from their race day finest, to jeans and a t-shirt.  One guy - and only one - was even in shorts despite the weather!  You'll note "that guy" was Keith!

One final photo-op and it was time to head up to our seats.  Not like I'd had a choice of where to sit when I was lucky enough to get tickets last winter, but our seats were amazing.  As you can see from the panorama below we were right at the 16th pole, which was the alternate finish line - and the finish line for three of the Breeders' Cup races.  The setting was every bit as picturesque as I'd remembered it.  As you look out across the track all you see are the rolling hills of Kentucky horse farm country.  And this time of year there was still plenty of fall colors.  THIS is what the Breeders' Cup should be like we both agreed - a traditional track with a packed house of race fans in an idyllic setting.

On the Friday card there were only four Breeders' Cup races, but there were two stakes - one graded - prior to the first championship race and three allowance races.  In the opener I liked Helooksthepart in a nw3x sprint.  There were eight horses entered and SEVEN of them were front runners with only my pick as a closer.  As the gates sprung open to kick off the weekend he was quickly in the back.  He made his move on the turn and while he made up ground Helookshepart was never a threat, finishing 5th at 5/1 odds. My second choice - who had shown speed vs. better here at Keeneland in a two-turn event won at better than 3/1.  The second race saw me land on Street Blush who was one of only two in this allowance test that had NOT raced in 2-lifetime company.  She as bet down from 5/1 in the program to 5/2 at post time but she broke in the air and trailed throughout, 7th.  The winner easily went wire to wire at nearly 4/1.  The third was another allowance, this time going seven furlongs.  I liked Pratereo who was 5/1 in the program but was a huge 10/1 at post time. He stalked the lead through the turn and I thought I might have something.....then ran evenly to the wire.  The winner was a big surprise to everyone at 15/1!  The fourth was my first added bet of the weekend as I doubled the bet on Bill Mott's Closing Bell who was the 2/1 post time favorite.  Deservedly so after being entered in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby of his maiden win and following that with a sharp second in the Grade 1 Secretariat.  He closed determinedly after laying fourth into the stretch, but he just couldn't get to the 16/1 winner.  Ironically in analyzing the race I wrote this about my third choice...... .  "How many times this weekend do you think you'll be able to get double-digits on a Chad Brown turf runner, that's owned by leading North American owners/breeders Ken & Sarah Ramsey, with top jockey Javier Castellano up?  Well 4-Tweet Kitten (12/1) gives you that chance here." and how prophetic was that as Tweet Kitten DID win paying over $30!  The fifth race was the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes.  Several in the field were multiple stakes winners and I was certain that Bob Baffert's Hoppertunity - who'd won the Grade 1 Clark last year - and Todd Pletcher's Commissioner, who was also a multiple stakes winner - would draw a lot of attention at the windows.  But the field overall was not full of any "stars."  To me the one that COULD be a star was another from the Pletcher stable, Race Day.  I'd seen him run at Gulfstream where he'd won an allowance with a big figure and then was third in a 3-way photo in a graded stakes.  He'd bounced out of that to take a graded stakes at Oaklawn, and then on Arkansas Derby Day he'd won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in ultra-impressive style as my top choice.  After that he'd run poorly but I thought you could make excuses for those efforts and I expected a big effort today.  He stalked the leaders through the far turn and then was cut loose by John Velazquez.  He burst to the front, lengthened his stride and was daylight clear to the wire, easily holding off the late running Hoppertunity.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

And the best part about my first winner on the day, he had gone off at a generous 4/1 price.  And despite losing my first four picks of the day, I just had a feeling about him, so instead of sticking with my minimum bet I'd doubled the play.  When the tote lit up at $10.60 for a $2 payout I was destined to cash out at better than $50!  And here's the really cool part to the story.  On Wednesday when I'd left for Ohio Kim had flown to Houston to be with Jeff, Antoinette, and Cameron for the birth of our second grandson.  It was expected to be a schedule delivery on Thursday but due to no beds at the hospital it was delayed until today.  About ten minutes before post time I got a text and photo of my new grandson, Anthony Rico, and then I hit Race Day in the Fayette!  What a great story - he's my good luck charm and he's not even an hour old!  Thanks Anthony!  The next race was the first of the Breeders' Cup races, the Grade1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  As I wrote in my analysis I felt like any one of half a dozen - literally nearly half the field - had a legitimate chance to win.  But in spite of drawing post 14 I liked the Euro juvenile, Hit It A Bomb.  He was a perfect 2-for-2 and had lured top Euro rider Ryan Moore.  As the field neared the far turn he was near the back and the entire field was chasing a 45/1 longshot.  At the furlong pole I had my camera on, but I nearly turned off the video because 'Bomb was no where to be found.  But then the long-time leader began to shorten stride.  I thought it would be a thrilling finish, even if I was NOT in it so I let the camera roll and then I caught site of his light blue cap quickly gobbling up ground.  When I tell you he was F-L-Y-I-N-G through the final 100 yards this does not even begin to describe the incredible finish he put on.  You have to watch the video recap or the race replay.  But in spite of being hopelessly out of it at the top of the lane, somehow Hit It A Bomb somehow was first on the wire in a photo finish!  TWO IN A ROW!

In spite of being 9/2 in the program the crowd had let him go off at a huge 7/1 price.  The $16.40 payoff meant I would cash for over $40.  Just like that I'm winning, big for the day! 

The 7th was my BET of the Day.  It was the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.  I'd had Liam's Map when he won his first-level allowance at Belmont last fall and when he'd won his first stakes race at Gulfstream last winter.  I'd most recently had him when he wired the Grade 1 Woodward as a prime-time pick.  After that it was widely expected that he would challenge American Pharoah in the $5 million Classic tomorrow.  But when I did my initial analysis of the 200 pre-entered horses I wrote that I was hoping he'd run in today's $1 million Dirt Mile because I thought he was a standout.  The only problem I saw was that there appeared to be another really fast horse - Appealing Tale, a wire-to-wire winner of a Grade 2 sprint and the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile - to challenge him.  But when that one defected to run in the Sprint on the Saturday card I thought this race was all over but the shouting.  So did the crowd who bet Liam's Map down to 1/2 favoritism.  But as they came out of the gate right in front of us he was squeezed back and was NOT on the lead.  He worked himself up to third mid-way down the backstretch but was checked and dropped back.  As the field turned for home and I was watching through my camera I lost sight of him.  I checked the little chicklets on the tote board and he looked to be dropping back fifth or sixth.  But as they moved into the stretch he swung off the rail and was in the clear with dead aim on the classy Lea who was two in front.  At the furlong pole just inside of our seats he blew by with devastating ease, so much so that both Keith and I looked at each other and said, "WOW!"  It was one of the most impressive Breeders' Cup wins of the weekend everyone agreed afterwards. AND he set a track record - all with being forced to run out of his comfort zone and run down a loose leader.  

That's three in a row for me (since the birth of my grandson!) and I am guaranteed a winning day on a card that I did not think much of.  In the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf I liked Alice Springs, another Euro with Moore on board.  She was 3/1 and split horses to go after the leader.  Only second best behind the 6/1 winner who had been my third choice.  The last championship race was the Grade 1, $2 Million Distaff.  I had liked Untapable, last year's winner who I felt was sitting on a big race.  But on Wednesday she'd spiked a fever and was withdrawn.  I went back and forth between several alternatives and finally settled on the filly I'd written was a dangerous longshot, I'm A Chatterbox.  She was 9/2 at post time and rode the rails while well back into the turn......and then nothing.  A distant sixth.  The winner was Stopchargingmaria at better than 7/1.  I'd considered her, but ..... As we headed for the exits the INQUIRY sign came up and while there was bumping it didn't look significant.  The stewards let the order stand.  For the day I'd won three of nine and cleared over $50 in profit.  An excellent day, even more so because of the kind of day I'd anticipated.