Breeders' Cup Saturday

Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday  October 30, 2015
Keeneland Race Course - Lexington, Kentucky

After the big day on Friday and with four "prime time plays" today I had high hopes for Championship Saturday.  Today's card was made up of two listed stakes followed by NINE Grade 1 Breeders' Cup championship races.  For what ever reason I woke up at 3:30 am and could not sleep so I worked on the photos from yesterday's adventure until nearly 5 am.  When I woke up and looked at the clock it was already 8 am and we'd planned to head out to the track by 9:30.  Keith was up and about and went to find reading glasses while I got ready and packed (we were leaving from the track to head back home).  I finished about 8:45 and got a cup of coffee.  When he came back we decided to leave for a Panera Bread which was next to the Cracker Barrel to start our day.  We were there for about a half an hour and then headed out to Keeneland.

Today was predicted to be warmer, but it was overcast when we arrived and there was a definite chill in the air; it felt even colder than yesterday.  Once we settled into our seats with the fantastic view of Keeneland I headed back downstairs for a cup of hot chocolate.  It was delicious and a great way to get me fired up for the big day!  I was on edge for the Classic where I wanted so badly to see American Pharoah top off his championship season with a decisive win today.

The first race was the Perryville Stakes and my pick was Majestic Affair.  He had last run in the Grade 3 Bayshore last spring, but top conditioner Chad Brown scores high percentages with layoff runners, and Javier Castellano was up.  Ironically on my way down to get hot chocolate I passed Chad Brown and wished him well - he thanked me.  From the very start Majestic Affair was wide and had no impact at 7/1, finishing fifth. In the second it was the Juvenile Sprint.  For a couple of years this had been a Breeders' Cup race, but it had been dropped two years ago - still it was on the card as a listed stakes both last year and today.  I went with unbeaten Richie the Bull who was a stalker and looked to get the perfect trip.  He did and was gaining, but was no better than third at 9/2.

The third race on today's card was the first of the Breeders' Cup races, the Grade 1 Juvenile Fillies.  Songbird was my prime-time play and honestly I considered making her a "heavy" investment.  She had been visually impressive in winning her most recent two starts and I thought she looked TONS the best in here.  My concern was that she was facing some really nice fillies, especially the highly regarded and also unbeaten Rachel's Valentina AND Songbird would be shipped out of California for the first time while drawing post ten.  While she'd won on the lead previously I felt the wide draw and short run to the first turn would lead Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to let her sit off the leader to the far turn.  But right out of the gate she exploded easily to the front.  She was travelling so easily that I had little doubt she'd win, it was just by how much.  What I did not figure was how scintillating her performance was.  Through the turn she was handily in front and Smith had not moved.  Jockey John Velazquez was begging Rachel's Valentina to cut into the lead by Songbird extended her lead with ease while Smith never moved.  It was easily one of the three most impressive performances of the weekend.  Provided all goes smoothly this filly will be the short-priced favorite on the first Friday of May in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks!

Two nice things about this win.......Songbird was 1/5 in the early betting and Keith said he'd just watch.  But with three minutes to post time she floated up to 3/5 and he left his seat.  I didn't ask, but I knew.  When she crossed the finish line he looked at me and said, "That's why you put $200 to win on a favorite!"  I was excited for him because he'd gone 0-fer on yesterday's card.  The second thing was that this win and my "prime time play" put me back in the black for the day!  WHOOO HOOO!  In the 4th, the Turf Sprint I liked Lady Shipman.  While I think local So Fla rider Eduardo Nunez is a good jockey, I loved the move to put top NY rider Irad Ortiz up.  I thought he'd get Lady Shipman to relax off the pace.  He did and she was in perfect position to run down the 15/1 leader in the stretch.  She was coming hard as the line came up.....PHOTO FINISH!  Second to that longshot winner.  The winner, Mongolian Saturday had multiple Asian owners and they all paraded to the winner's circle in traditional Mongolian garb to the delight of the crowd!  I the Filly & Mare Sprint I loved the 14 draw for multiple stakes winner Cavorting.  She was unbeaten in ever race around one turn and her off-the-pace style was a perfect fit for the track profile and with all the speed to her inside.  She was in traffic several times down the backside but was rallying.....too late, fourth as the tepid 3/1 favorite while my upset longshot rallied through a clean trip to win at 10/1.  I KNEW I was going to win the next, the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  Legatisimo was a multiple Group 1 winner with only two nose defeats this year.  Her Group 1 scores were much better than anything the domestics had ever seen.  Top jockey Ryan Moore rode her confidently, four wide into the lane to keep her free of trouble.  She wore down the 20/1 leader nearing the 1/8th pole but he - nor the horse - never saw North American heroine Stephanie's Kitten FLYING up the rail to pass her.  By the time they saw Stephanie it was in the shadow of the wire and she was second as one of my added investment selections.  It was very interesting to watch the reaction of the owners and trainer with Moore following the race.  It was very clear that they felt very strongly that he'd let the race get away from him by not riding more aggressively.  This was doubly obvious because Moore had at least one more mount for these same connections later this afternoon.  In the BC Sprint I was unable to watch the race live.  Keith and I went to the "Gourmet Hot Dog" stand and ordered dogs.  Only to be told that they had no dogs!  WHAT???? They would need 20 minutes to cook.  We waited and finally got them at post time.  What was really odd was that the entire time there were at least two dozen dogs on the rolling grill behind the cooks.  I figured those had just been put on there, but when the hot dogs were "ready" no one even looked at or touched those hot dogs.  What's the deal?  My pick Salutos Amigos was a late running 5th at 12/1 odds. 

In the Breeders' Cup Mile I liked the Euro Esoterique who was 4/1 at post time.  Keith was looking to cash his second ticket and contemplated a trifecta.  He asked me who I'd throw out.  "To start with, the 7" I said.  He looked up and she was the third choice.  He said, come on, be serious - who won't hit the board.  I told him I'd seen this filly (who was taking on the boys here) and she's really overrated.  Who else he asked.  I said while it was difficult to say with certainty who would not hit the board I felt pretty confident that 1,4, 8, and 10 would also not hit the board.  My pick, Esoterique was near the back the entire time, 7th.  The #7, Tepin won like a world champion and the top four numbers:  7-4-1-10 ..... go figure!  The best part was Keith said that THIS would be his most vivid memory of the weekend....I said the 7 would not hit the board, nor would the 4-1-10 and those four were 1-2-3-4 with a $1,000 payoff on the trifecta!  In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile I wondered if the unbeaten west coast juvenile, Nyquist, could adjust to the trip like Songbird.  But we went with Unbridled Outlaw who'd had three consecutive troubled trips and got a rider change to Mike Smith.  He pressed the pace to the far turn at 7/1 then stopped to finish 12th while Nyquist drew off impressively at nearly 5/1.  The Breeders' Cup Turf was one of my top plays of the day.  I explained to Keith that five years ago I bought the "Crushing The Cup" book from local handicapper Jim Mazur and had followed his advice in the turf to (a) avoid the Arc winner and bet "the other European."  I was rewarded when Dangerous Midge won and paid $19.  In 2011 I again followed this angle and was rewarded when St. Nicholas Abbey won and paid $15.60.  In 2012 North American Little Mike won at a big price (after I'd bet him in nearly every other start all year and abandoned him in the BC!); and then in 2013 I went with the Euro favorite, only to watch the "other Euro" win at a big price.  Last year I went with a Euro but saw North American unbeaten star Main Sequence win.  So today I really liked Golden Horn because - I reasoned - I was thinking "outside the box."  He had a sensational career record of 8/7-1-0 with earnings of over $6 million.  And while he had won the Arc last time out he was the Euro version of American Pharoah and EVERYONE was certain he'd win here. As I looked over the field before betting there wasn't anyone who looked like a serious threat.  But it kept nagging at me.  I showed Keith the runners and told him about the "other Euro" angle.  And then I pointed out that besides Golden Horn there was only ONE other European in the field.....#9 Found who was 6/1.  He'd been beaten by Golden Horn previously.  But Ryan Moore was riding for the SAME connections as in the F&M Turf on Legatisimo.  I wavered, but then I thought no, Golden Horn wins here.  The front running longshot was at least 15 lengths in front while Golden Horn tracked in third at 4/5.  On the far turn he inhaled that one and was clear into the lane.  In the final 16th there came a blur on the outside with a turquoise saddle cloth and the number 9 on it to nail him in the final fifty yards.....yes, the "other European" Follow, who paid $14.80 and NOW the connections were delighted with Moore's ride!  Finally, it was time for THE RACE - the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.  As Keith and I awaited the start we were both very nervous and shared the opinion that it wasn't about the bet, or the handicapping but more about American Pharoah.  We just WANTED him to be the legend he seems to be and go out as the first Triple Crown winner to capture the Classic.  I really, REALLY thought he was sitting on a HUGE race here but I have been trying all fall to not go over the top with my bets.  But when it came time to bet I made him the "BET of the WEEKEND."  The crowd was as amped up as we were and erupted when he came on the track for the post parade; and again when the announcer said it was post time; and the roar was deafening when they broke out of the gate.  He easily went to the front and I was pretty confident he was a big time winner.  Nearing the far turn first one horse and then another tried to close ground on him but each time he spurted away.  When they turned for home the crowd was going wild as he opened up by five lengths.  Through the stretch jockey Victor Espinoza gave him a vigorous hand ride as this was he final race of his career and as he crossed the finish line he'd set a course record and had stopped the clock with one of the fastest BC Classic times of all time.

My bet, as you can see in the photo, was a $100 win bet.  In spite of the main threat, champion mare Beholder scratching AND being the lone speed of the race, somehow the crowd let him go off at 3/5 odds....amazing.  So my ticket got me a return of $170.  This enabled me to finish the weekend with a profit and a "typical" 30% win percentage.  As Keith and I both said before the race, regardless of anything else, if American Pharoah wins, that will be all we remember - or at least what we remember most about our trip to Keeneland and the Breeders' Cup.  We got out of the parking lot with very little trouble and within a half an hour we were back at the hotel parking lot where Keith got into his car to drive home and I was ready to head back to Columbus.  We've already agreed we'll pass on the BC next year when it is back at Santa Anita, AGAIN (fourth time in five years) but we will be planning on going to the 2017 Breeders' Cup in San Diego at Del Mar.  I thought many times on the drive home how very fortunate I am....not only overall with my retirement and trips.  But how lucky that I'd decided that THIS year I wanted to go to Arkansas for the Apple Blossom and stay for the Arkansas Derby - and American Pharoah shows up there; then I'd decided over a year ago that I wanted to go to the Preakness and I'd go this year....and American Pharoah shows up;  and before we ever knew about either of those races, Keith and I had made a commitment to come to Keeneland for the Breeders' Cup and here he is again.  The first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, the first to EVER win the Triple Crown AND the Breeders' Cup Classic and I get to see him THREE times live.  I must be doing something right!